Key factors:
A new research inspecting the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the predictive validity of highschool grade level common (HSGPA) and ACT Composite scores has uncovered vital modifications in how these metrics forecast first-year school efficiency.
The analysis, performed by ACT, reveals that whereas the predictive energy of highschool GPA has notably decreased since 2020, ACT Composite scores have remained a dependable indicator of scholars’ early school success.
Early success in school has been proven to be an indicator of profitable and well timed diploma completion. HSGPA and standardized take a look at scores similar to these from the ACT have been used to foretell a scholar’s first-year school GPA (FYGPA), which gives insights for college students to higher put together for larger training and for schools to establish college students who may have extra assist.
ACT researchers reviewed and analyzed college students’ ACT Composite scores, self-reported HSGPAs, and official FYGPAs. The researchers used HSGPA and ACT Composite rating to foretell a scholar’s FYGPA, after which analyzed how these predictions differed from the coed’s precise FYGPA.
The analysis discovered an increase within the imply HSGPA from 3.44 in 2017 to three.59 in 2021. On the similar time, ACT Composite scores decreased from 22.51 in 2018 to 21.90 in 2021.
“Whenever you look at how these traits correspond with first-year school GPA, our analysis demonstrates that after the onset of the pandemic, highschool GPA has change into a much less constant predictor whereas ACT Composite scores have proven relative stability in predicting first-year GPA,” mentioned Dr. Edgar I. Sanchez, a lead analysis scientist at ACT and writer of the report. “In gentle of those findings, we should reevaluate the predictive energy of highschool grades and use a extra holistic strategy for predicting scholar success, so college students have an correct evaluation of how they’re prone to carry out of their first yr of school.”
As schools work to make sure they’re precisely evaluating college students as a part of the admission course of, and training grapples with the continuing results of the COVID-19 pandemic, the research’s findings present essential concerns for a way schools can greatest consider scholar efficiency.
“As many schools more and more depend on highschool GPA for admission, course placement, and scholarship choices–notably with standardized take a look at scores turning into elective–understanding and addressing the impact of grade inflation is extra vital than ever,” ACT CEO Janet Godwin mentioned. “Correct evaluation of educational readiness is crucial for supporting college students successfully and making certain they’re ready for the challenges of upper training.”
The research is predicated on an analytical pattern of 40,194 college students throughout 10 postsecondary establishments. Based mostly on these findings, schools and different determination makers ought to think about a extra holistic strategy, during which HSGPA and ACT Composite rating mixed present a singular worth and nuanced prediction of scholar FYGPA. Utilizing each HSGPA and ACT Composite rating collectively improved predictions of FYGPA extra successfully than utilizing both measure alone, in line with the research.
Key findings:
- The onset of the pandemic noticed vital grade inflation in excessive colleges. This research demonstrates that after the onset of the pandemic, HSGPA has change into a much less constant predictor of FYGPA.
- The connection between ACT Composite rating and predicted FYGPA has remained steady throughout all cohorts indicating that the ACT Composite rating was and stays a constant predictor of FYGPA regardless of the pandemic.
- Utilizing each HSGPA and ACT Composite rating collectively improved predictions of FYGPA extra successfully than utilizing both measure alone.
- The imply ACT Composite rating barely decreased from 22.34 (2017) to 21.90 (2021).
- The imply HSGPA elevated from 3.44 (2017) to three.59 (2021).
- The imply FYGPA confirmed a gentle improve from 2.81 (2017) to 2.92 (2019), dropped to 2.78 (2020), after which rebounded to 2.84 (2021).
This press launch initially appeared on-line.
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