This previous weekend, X proprietor Elon Musk elevated a false right-wing speaking level about immigration, claiming Democrats have been fast-tracking citizenship functions to rig elections within the social gathering’s favor.
“If even 1 in 20 illegals turn into residents per 12 months, one thing that the Democrats are expediting as quick as humanly doable, that may be about 2 million new authorized voters in 4 years,” Musk claimed. “The voting margin within the swing states is usually lower than 20 thousand votes. Which means if the ‘Democratic’ Occasion succeeds, there might be no extra swing states!!”
It’s a baseless allegation, and one which advances the far-right’s racist “Nice Alternative Idea,” which means that Democrats are using immigration insurance policies to interchange white People — on this case, white voters — with minorities. It’s additionally an argument that’s resonating broadly with Republicans, notably on X, the place lies about immigration have been given a big platform in current weeks.
These falsehoods are additionally being amplified by excess of simply right-wing social media customers. A fantasy concerning the prevalence of noncitizen voting briefly led to a authorities shutdown risk. Former President Donald Trump has been key to spreading these concepts, noting within the presidential debate with Vice President Kamala Harris earlier this 12 months that “quite a lot of these unlawful immigrants coming in, they’re making an attempt to get them to vote.”
These lies — given their deal with voting — might have severe penalties because the 2024 election approaches, sowing doubts concerning the legitimacy of election outcomes.
With Trump already priming his supporters for one more spherical of election denialism in case of a possible loss, the GOP’s fixation on noncitizens and “unlawful” immigrants voting is barely serving to him additional lay that groundwork.
Republicans are fixated on lies about immigrant voting
His claims, nonetheless, don’t match as much as the details. Right here’s what we all know:
Declare: Democrats are making unauthorized immigrants residents to tilt the election of their favor.
Actuality: Unauthorized immigrants aren’t broadly eligible for naturalization — and have few paths to citizenship. To qualify for naturalization, somebody usually has to have been a lawful everlasting resident for 5 years, married to a US citizen and a lawful everlasting resident for 3 years, or a member of the navy.
Moreover, the US is approving citizenship functions at its swiftest tempo in years, but it surely’s not as a result of regulators try to skew the election in Democrats’ favor. The federal government is doing so as a result of there was already a backlog that received worse through the pandemic, the Los Angeles Instances stories. Now, the Division of Homeland Safety is successfully doing catch-up.
The US naturalized 878,500 individuals in 2023 and is now processing functions in roughly 4.9 months – a tempo that’s similar to how shortly the federal government was approving functions in 2013. In line with the New York Instances, processing time for naturalization functions spiked through the Trump administration because the White Home sought to cut back authorized and unauthorized immigration.
These new residents additionally aren’t assured Democratic voters. Polling has indicated that naturalized residents lean Democrat, however each events are prone to decide up some new voters as individuals bear this course of. In line with a survey from the Nationwide Partnership for New People, 54 p.c of naturalized residents stated they’d vote for Vice President Kamala Harris in November, whereas 38 p.c stated they’d again former President Donald Trump.
It’s price reiterating that naturalized residents aren’t unauthorized immigrants, and that the majority of them — roughly 83 p.c, in line with the US Citizenship and Immigration Companies — have been lawful everlasting residents for 5 years. Unauthorized immigrants have restricted pathways to citizenship, and plenty of aren’t eligible for naturalization.
Declare: In line with Musk, “the Biden/Harris administration has been flying ‘asylum seekers’, who’re fast-tracked to citizenship, immediately into swing states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin and Arizona.”
Actuality: This Republican speaking level seems to consult with a “parole” program the Biden administration has accredited for Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, and Venezuelans amid instability of their house nations. Underneath this system, individuals can quickly enter the US for 2 years, pay for their very own journey, and fly into the nation. There is no such thing as a proof that persons are being flown particularly to swing states, and as a US Citizenship and Immigration Companies (USCIS) spokesperson advised Vox, DHS doesn’t select the airports that parolees fly into, and it additionally doesn’t management or select the place parolees cool down.
Moreover, parolees should not have a path to citizenship and consequently could be unable to vote in future elections.
As authorized immigrants, asylum seekers do have a path to citizenship; in line with US Citizenship and Immigration Companies (USCIS), 3.3 p.c of these naturalized in 2023 got here to the US as asylum seekers — roughly 29,000 individuals. Whereas that is perhaps sufficient to swing a state as shut as Georgia was in 2020, it’s not sufficient to have an effect on the outcomes in all of the states Musk listed, even when Democrats have been flying individuals there. Which, once more, they aren’t.
As well as, most naturalized residents have settled in states that aren’t swing states, with California, Texas, Florida, New York, and New Jersey topping the listing, per USCIS.
There’s one different key conservative falsehood relating to immigrants and voting, and it’s one which seems to have touched off Musk’s tweet.
Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT) highlighted the declare in a tweet a consumer responded to; Musk then responded to that put up. In line with Lee, “hundreds of noncitizen voter information are being found in state after state, Democrats try to cease these states from eradicating noncitizens from their voter information.” The senator went on to say that this is the reason Republicans’ failed SAVE Act, which might have required proof of citizenship to vote, ought to have handed.
Declare: Noncitizens are being allowed to vote and assist Democrats win federal elections.
Actuality: It’s unlawful for noncitizens to vote in federal elections, and noncitizens have very hardly ever been discovered to be illegally voting. In line with the Brennan Middle for Justice, a left-leaning nonprofit that focuses on voting rights, election officers chargeable for the counting of almost 23.5 million votes in 2016 recognized simply 30 doable circumstances of noncitizen voting for investigation.
Noncitizens are capable of vote in some native elections for positions like Metropolis Council and faculty board in some jurisdictions in Vermont and California, however they aren’t capable of vote anyplace in federal elections.
Republicans are stoking immigration fears
Republicans are taking this strategy due to how salient the difficulty is as soon as once more proving this election cycle and since extra voters have stated they’d do a greater job on border safety than Democrats.
As Vox’s Nicole Narea reported, a majority of People — 55 p.c, the very best proportion in years — wish to see immigration ranges lower within the US. To capitalize on these sentiments, Republicans have positioned themselves because the social gathering with options on this difficulty, framing Democrats’ so-called laxness on the border as the reason for immigration issues.
The problem has gained new consideration amid record-high border crossings in late 2023, which have declined since, and an inflow of migrants in a number of main cities.
By linking present issues about immigration with voting, Republicans are as soon as once more utilizing misinformation to undermine belief within the election system. Already, there’s vital skepticism about election safety, partially as a consequence of Trump and different distinguished leaders’ emphatic election denialism. An August ABC/Ipsos ballot discovered almost 25 p.c of Trump supporters aren’t ready to simply accept the election outcomes, no matter consequence. Claims that one thing is amiss with who’s voting might exacerbate these issues, particularly in the event that they play on present anti-immigrant biases.
Since Republicans are coalescing round these lies about immigrant voting, it’s not far-fetched to consider Trump, if he loses, might attempt to declare that noncitizens swayed the election for Harris, particularly since he blamed noncitizens for his loss in 2020 and his lack of the favored vote in 2016. Ought to he attempt to take action once more, he’s poised to duplicate the chaos and confusion that resulted from Republicans leaning into false issues about election fraud over the last election.
Replace, October 2, 4:10 pm ET: This put up was first printed on October 2 and has been up to date to incorporate a remark from USCIS and additional particulars on the parole program.
