First, some forecasters turn into actually good. What usually occurs then is individuals hunt down their opinions upfront. That’s optimistic.
Second, as soon as bets are made, Bigwigs would possibly change tack midstream. That is in all probability what political candidates will do extra of going ahead: “Polls say that we’re tied, however prediction markets present we’re means behind. We have to change technique.”
Think about how a lot “fact serum” prediction markets would inject into our little wonky nook of the world. They inform Bigwigs what they don’t need to hear, the reality no person of their internal circle will say (even when they suppose it).
For a one-time charitable funding of $10 million, an enormous donor might create liquidity that absolutely rewires what passes for training debate on this nation.
For the price of just some well-funded randomized managed trials (in all probability displaying that one more edtech product or instructor coaching failed at scale), you would have Edumarket.
For $10 million, as a substitute of making an attempt to steer Bigwigs to “observe the proof,” you wager towards them and attempt to embarrass them away from their future errors.
Importantly, economists Eva Vivalt and Stefano DellaVigna have already constructed the bones of this prediction platform, for all social sciences. The again finish is able to roll.
Think about how a lot “fact serum” might be injected into our wonky nook of the world.
All for the value of a one-time $10 million charitable funding.*
