Islamabad, Pakistan – For greater than 60 years, India and Pakistan have collectively managed the waters of six rivers of the Indus basin that gave start to one of many oldest human civilisations.
Regardless of 4 wars and near-constant rigidity between them, the South Asian neighbours used the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) to irrigate the fertile lands on each side of their border.
However that pact might emerge as the most recent flashpoint within the fragile relationship between New Delhi and Islamabad, with India serving a discover to Pakistan searching for to renegotiate the treaty’s phrases.
Indian media stories say that on September 18, India despatched a proper discover to Pakistan, citing numerous considerations, together with modifications in inhabitants demographics, environmental challenges, and different components, asking for a reassessment of the treaty.
“India’s notification highlights basic and unexpected modifications in circumstances that require a reassessment of obligations below numerous Articles of the Treaty,” the Indian discover stated.
So what does the discover actually imply? Why is the Indus Waters Treaty so essential to each international locations – and what’s subsequent?
What’s the Indus Waters Treaty?
Like many points between India and Pakistan, the origins of the IWT hint again to the Partition of India in August 1947, when British rule ended, and India and Pakistan emerged as two sovereign nations. Each international locations, residence to a mixed inhabitants of over 1.6 billion, are closely depending on the waters of the rivers flowing from the Himalayas.
With each nations counting on the identical river programs for irrigation and agriculture, an pressing want arose to barter an equitable sharing of water sources, notably to resolve problems with the operation of an built-in irrigation system in Punjab – a province which the British invested closely in, however by way of which the brand new border separating India and Pakistan handed by way of.
After 9 years of debate, facilitated by the World Financial institution, then-Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and former Pakistani President Ayub Khan signed the IWT [PDF] in September 1960.
Below the treaty, India controls the three japanese rivers – Ravi, Sutlej, and Beas – whereas Pakistan controls the three western rivers – Jhelum, Chenab, and Indus. India is obligated to permit the waters of the western rivers to move into Pakistan with restricted exceptions.
The treaty permits India to develop hydroelectric initiatives on the western rivers below sure situations. These initiatives have to be “run-of-the-river”, which means they can not considerably alter water move or storage, guaranteeing Pakistan’s water rights because the downstream riparian will not be adversely affected.
What does India need?
In a nutshell, India has stated that it needs to renegotiate the phrases of the treaty.
Based on Anuttama Banerji, a political analyst primarily based in New Delhi, India believes the present phrases of the treaty go in opposition to it.
The Jhelum, Chenab and Indus – rivers Pakistan is entitled to make use of – have far more water than the Ravi, Sutlej and Beas, which India controls. In impact, Banerji stated, India has entry to about 20 % of the whole water coated by the treaty, whereas Pakistan has entry to the remaining 80 %.
That restricted entry to water from the rivers has grown into a significant problem for India as its inhabitants has soared in current a long time – it’s now the world’s most populous nation.
“India feels that the treaty doesn’t have in mind newer threats and considerations comparable to inhabitants stress and local weather change and its after-effects throughout the precincts of the treaty,” Banerji, a former fellow on the Washington, DC-based Stimson Heart, stated.
Whereas India hasn’t clarified what particular modifications it needs to be made to the treaty, many analysts imagine New Delhi will search phrases that make it simpler than now to develop hydropower and different infrastructure on the western rivers whose water Pakistan is entitled to make use of.
In the meantime, Pakistan has held its personal considerations over the implementation of the treaty lately.
What does Pakistan need from the treaty?
Regardless of ongoing tensions between India and Pakistan, the IWT largely remained uncontroversial till the late Nineties when India introduced plans to construct the Baglihar Hydropower Mission in Indian-administered Kashmir, on the Chenab.
Extra just lately, India has additionally constructed the Kishanganga hydroelectric plant on the Jhelum river.
“Pakistan’s argument is that the way in which India is designing these dams violates its absolute obligation to let the waters move,” Ahmed Rafay Alam, a Lahore-based environmental lawyer, stated.
India, however, insists that its initiatives adjust to the treaty’s stipulations. “India argues that if it meant to dam water move, it must flood its personal territory, which is impractical,” Alam added.
Formally, although, Pakistan has not sought any modifications to the treaty itself.
A spokesperson for Pakistan’s Ministry for International Affairs, Mumtaz Zahra Baloch, on Thursday stated that the treaty was the “gold commonplace” of bilateral treaties and added that Pakistan stays “absolutely dedicated” to its implementation.
“Pakistan believes that it’s our collective accountability to keep up ecological stability, defend our surroundings and keep away from measures which can have antagonistic implications for the surroundings. The 2 international locations have a mechanism of Indus commissioners, and we imagine all points pertaining to this treaty may be mentioned on this mechanism,” Baloch stated throughout her weekly press briefing.
The place does the treaty match into broader India-Pakistan relations?
It’s an essential a part of it – and although it’s centred on a technical topic and in the end pertains to a human important, water, it has not been proof against the area’s geopolitics.
In September 2016, armed fighters attacked an Indian military base in Uri in Indian-administered Kashmir. At the least 19 troopers have been killed. India blamed Pakistan for the assault. Islamabad denied any function.
However within the aftermath of the assault, Indian officers stated Prime Minister Narendra Modi had indicated that New Delhi would possibly weaponise India’s place because the higher riparian state throughout the Indus Valley to punish Pakistan by way of restrictions on water. “Blood and water can’t move collectively,” Modi instructed them, the officers instructed a number of Indian journalists.
Based on Erum Sattar, a lecturer within the sustainable water administration programme at Tufts College, “Any try and view water sharing as purely a technocratic matter divorced from political, geopolitical, and monetary realities is simplistic and myopic.”
“The IWT is contentious due to the geography and territorial management exercised by each international locations. The rivers move downstream, and Pakistan, being the decrease riparian, is closely depending on historic water flows,” Sattar instructed Al Jazeera.
Banerji, the New Delhi-based analyst, stated that whereas the treaty itself isn’t controversial, its technical nature means there may be little common public understanding of its provisions. That in flip permits political stakeholders to make use of the treaty as bait to escalate tensions inside India and Pakistan.
“For example, we’re solely conscious that India has requested for a modification or revision of the treaty, however the particulars will not be accessible within the public area,” she instructed Al Jazeera.
What are the arguments offered by the 2 international locations?
Based on Sattar, Pakistan’s place is that it has a historic proper to the western rivers, as specified by the treaty. Pakistan has relied on these rivers to keep up its huge agricultural infrastructure because the colonial period.
Nevertheless, she says that India’s place has regularly shifted over current a long time, because it has sought to construct extra infrastructure to regulate extra of the waters of the western rivers, primarily assigned to move into Pakistan.
“India now more and more makes the argument, because it appears to have accomplished within the newest discover issued to Pakistan, that altering environmental realities, shifting demographics and the general want for financial improvement and a dependable and ‘greener’ energy provide to satisfy these financial improvement wants signifies that India want to reopen the treaty to barter presumably higher phrases for itself,” she stated.
Alam, the lawyer, says that this treaty is the one transboundary water treaty on earth which “divides waters and doesn’t share them”.
“All different treaties discuss how waters passing by way of quite a few international locations are ‘shared’ amongst and the way waters are to be revered. However this stays the one one the place water is ‘divided’ as a substitute,” he added.
In January 2023, India accused Pakistan of “intransigence” concerning the treaty’s implementation, after Islamabad raised repeated objections to hydroelectric initiatives being constructed by India on the western rivers and took the matter to The Hague-based Everlasting Courtroom of Arbitration (PCA).
India has rejected the PCA’s jurisdiction over the dispute, arguing that Pakistan had did not first exhaust different dispute decision mechanisms within the Indus Water Treaty.
What’s the dispute decision mechanism below the treaty?
Below the IWT, the international locations have established a Everlasting Indus Fee, with a commissioner from either side.
Minor disputes are addressed by way of the fee, however unresolved points may be referred to a impartial professional appointed by the World Financial institution, which facilitates the treaty’s dispute decision mechanism.
Pakistan had initially sought the appointment of a impartial professional to settle the dispute over Indian initiatives on western rivers however had then approached the PCA. India, in the meantime, then sought the appointment of a impartial professional.
The World Financial institution determined, in 2022, to each appoint a impartial professional and permit proceedings on the PCA. India solely participates within the impartial professional’s mediations.
Has the treaty served its goal?
Based on Sattar, the IWT has largely been a hit. Nevertheless, when territorial management points – particularly regarding Kashmir – are factored in, the state of affairs turns into extra sophisticated.
The Kashmir valley, a stupendous but disputed area, has been the reason for a number of wars between India and Pakistan since 1947. Each nations declare the area in its entirety, although every administers components of it.
“The IWT was designed to maintain the Kashmir battle from escalating into a bigger confrontation whereas guaranteeing water points have been managed to some extent,” Sattar stated.
Alam too stated that he believes that the treaty has largely served its goal over the previous six a long time.
What’s the way forward for the treaty?
Since India’s resolution in August 2019 to revoke Indian-administered Kashmir’s autonomy, relations between the 2 international locations have deteriorated additional.
Sattar believes that the easiest way to maneuver ahead with the treaty is to return to the “spirit” by which it was initially negotiated.
But, as India’s international affect continues to rise, Pakistan will seemingly pursue its water-related claims by way of worldwide legislation, whereas India will leverage its geopolitical significance to claim its place, the educational stated.
