NFL midseason grades: Contenders & pretenders amongst Packers, Seahawks, Falcons, Steelers and extra

Halfway by means of the NFL season, we’re beginning to see the really elite groups separate themselves on the high of the league. The Detroit Lions, Baltimore Ravens, and Kansas Metropolis Chiefs fall on this class as main candidates to succeed in the Tremendous Bowl. We’re additionally seeing some really horrid groups separate themselves on the backside of the league. The Patriots, Jaguars and Saints fall into this class, groups whose seasons are just about lifeless within the water at this level.

Nonetheless, what will we make of the groups in between them? The center class of the NFL has by no means felt bigger, with many of the league nonetheless hovering round .500. There are some extremely enjoyable and good groups, however all with some massive flaws as nicely. So how will we separate these groups which might be true contenders from groups who’ve benefitted from some luck this season? That’s the aim right this moment, to parse by means of the center class of the NFL and see who can actually make a deep run within the postseason, and who may not have the horses this yr.

Utilizing FTN Fantasy’s Workforce DVOA rankings, we’ll separate the highest 5 in Workforce DVOA and the underside 12 in the identical metric, hopefully getting groups 6-19 to debate. Within the course of, we’re flipping the Buffalo Payments and San Francisco 49ers, as a result of I feel the Payments are among the many NFL’s elite. So let’s hop in and see which groups are contenders and that are pretenders, beginning with the Tremendous Bowl runner ups from final season.

San Francisco 49ers: Contenders (hesitantly)

Part of me desires to consider that this 49ers’ season is finished. Already with losses to the Rams, Cardinals and Vikings, they’ve put themselves behind the eight-ball in terms of playoff rivalry, and nonetheless have video games in opposition to Tampa Bay, Inexperienced Bay and Detroit developing with the opposite division video games. The 49er protection isn’t dangerous this yr, however it’s only a bit off the usual we affiliate with this workforce. They’re fifteenth in Defensive EPA per play and sixteenth in Success Fee, making them virtually completely common, a drop down from their elite ranks. Mix that with shedding WR Brandon Aiyuk to a torn ACL and also you get a workforce that’s been severely hit by the harm bug and the general mind drain of being the very best workforce within the convention for 5 or so years.

But, I discover myself nonetheless believing on this workforce. RB Christian McCaffrey might be coming again after the bye week, as will WR Jauan Jennings. It stays to be seen how efficient McCaffrey shall be after lacking a big portion of the season, however his skill to maintain San Francisco out of man protection conditions and be probably the most explosive portion of the Niners’ offense is essential with Aiyuk out for the season. I need to say this workforce received’t make it, however so long as Kyle Shanahan is teaching I feel the Niners are contenders…perhaps.

Photograph by Tim Warner/Getty Photos

Houston Texans: Pretenders

The Texans are a bizarre workforce. A irritating workforce, if you’ll.

Regardless of having all of the makings of a workforce prepared to leap into the waters of the elite this season, they simply haven’t put collectively constant stretches of play. A big a part of this falls on the offense, who has an issue up entrance. They’re twentieth in Adjusted Line Yards, lifeless final within the NFL in share of runs the place the again is hit at or behind the road of scrimmage, and CJ Stroud has been sacked 21 occasions. All of those got here to a head in a befuddling Thursday Night time loss to the New York Jets the place Stroud was sacked eight occasions and solely accomplished 11 of his 30 passes. Defensively, I feel they’re fairly good, however are inclined to quite a lot of explosive performs downfield, having the third-highest DVOA allowed on deep passes in the complete league.

WR Nico Collins coming again ought to assist the offense return to some type of good play, however I’m unsure if this workforce is prepared but to be a severe playoff contender.

Washington Commanders: Contenders

I nonetheless have my doubts in regards to the sustainability of all of this, however make no mistake about it: the 7-2 Commanders are contenders within the NFC. Their offense, led by rookie sensation Jayden Daniels and star wideout Terry McLaurin, is placing up extraordinarily environment friendly numbers, sitting fairly at first in offensive EPA per play and second in DVOA on that very same aspect of the ball. They keep out of apparent passing conditions, and even once they do, they get some hero performs from Daniels and McLaurin, who’ve displayed a mind-meld in contrast to something I’ve seen from a rookie QB this early. As soon as they get RB Brian Robinson again, the run recreation turns into much more potent.

I’ve quite a lot of questions in regards to the viability of a protection that’s simply okay, but when the offense can play like they’ve, they’ll get a shot in a bizarre NFC.

Photograph by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Photos

Inexperienced Bay Packers: Contenders

I nonetheless think about the Packers, regardless of a humbling 24-14 loss to the Detroit Lions on Sunday. Plenty of that religion is reliant on a wholesome Jordan Love, nonetheless. It was clear on Sunday that Love wasn’t 100% on account of a groin harm suffered in opposition to Jacksonville, and his motion was compromised, resulting in some actually boneheaded performs.

Holding the Lions to solely 24 factors is a testomony to each the climate affecting the sport and the Packers’ protection, however the offense has to get extra from their youth in all these video games. Love had a foul recreation general, the receivers mixed for six drops and penalties harm their workforce. However once more, I feel I’ve seen extra sustainable offense from the Packers than not, so I’ll maintain them within the contender class.

Philadelphia Eagles: Contender (hesitantly)

Similar to the Texans above them, the Eagles are an extremely irritating workforce. Regardless of beating the Jaguars 28-23, the offense sputtered for many of the recreation and had been actively hamstrung by their head coach and his rollercoaster determination making in crucial moments. That’s probably the most bewildering half about this workforce. Nick Sirianni feels incapable of creating a sound determination, and it trickles down by means of the remainder of the employees. For instance: a rollout go on 4th and 1 regardless of having Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts on the workforce. Or perhaps kicking a 58 yard subject aim as an alternative of attempting to ice the sport by simply going for it. Or how about all of the failed 4th down conversions? These items all add up and it places the top coach instantly in entrance of the expertise attempting to win the sport. If the Eagles make the playoffs and sputter out once more, it’ll be due to the top coach.

Nonetheless, Philly is a contender due to mentioned expertise. They’ve too many stars on offense and it feels just like the protection is coming collectively on the proper level within the season. Including CB Cooper DeJean to the beginning lineup has helped mix what Vic Fangio desires to do within the secondary, they usually’re getting high quality play from LBs Zack Baun and Nakobe Dean. Their inconsistent go rush could be what will get them on the defensive aspect of the ball, however they’ve performed nicely.

The Eagles are contenders, however till Nick Sirianni reveals he’s able to not slicing out his personal groups’ legs from beneath them, they’re nothing greater than that.

Photograph by Joe Sargent/Getty Photos

Pittsburgh Steelers: Contender (hesitantly)

One other hesitant contender enters the chat! The Steelers are 6-2 and within the midst of getting some actually good soccer from QB Russell Wilson, so why are they hesitant contenders? The primary hesitancy is how sustainable this degree of play from Wilson is. Since getting into the beginning lineup he’s proven the power to generate explosives downfield together with his arm whereas preserving Pittsburgh’s offense on observe, however I don’t know the way constant each he and the working recreation shall be. In Wilson’s two video games, they’ve performed two of the worst run defenses within the NFL within the Jets and Giants, and have video games in opposition to each the Ravens and Browns in addition to the Chiefs developing. If they will’t constantly generate something on the bottom, it places extra on the shoulders of Wilson, who may not be capable to carry that load like he used to. The protection remains to be good, however the Steelers have at all times fielded a superb protection. If Pittsburgh desires to go additional than the divisional spherical, it’ll must maintain this degree of play from Wilson.

Los Angeles Chargers: Contender

The Chargers are a contender as a result of in a weaker AFC, they’ve two issues that separate groups come playoff time: a protection that is superb and a QB enjoying at a really excessive degree. Justin Herbert has really performed some insane soccer over the past 4 video games. Whereas the stats may not present it (throwing to Will Dissly and Simi Fehoko will try this), he’s proven a lot management over this offense and is even doing extra creation out of construction as nicely. So long as Herbert is enjoying nicely, they’ll have a shot in each recreation. Then on the defensive aspect, DC Jesse Minter has the Chargers protection firing on all cylinders. They’ve been tremendous spectacular on the again finish, enjoying on a string, whereas up entrance Khalil Mack and Poona Ford flip again the clock up entrance. The younger linebackers are enjoying nicely within the center, and it’s actually introduced the unit collectively as a complete. To not point out, they have already got wins over Denver and Cleveland this season.

I’m not saying we ought to be ready for the Chargers making the playoffs in 12 months 1 beneath Jim Harbaugh, however I’m saying that it wouldn’t shock me.

Atlanta Falcons: Contender

The Atlanta Falcons are contenders as a result of they boast one of the vital versatile offenses in the complete league. Because the opening season loss to Pittsburgh, Atlanta has a high 5 offense in EPA per play and is sixth in offensive success price as nicely. QB Kirk Cousins is enjoying at a excessive degree, doing extra true QB’ing from shotgun and in customary dropback conditions than he did in Minnesota, and he’s developed a rapport with receivers Drake London and Darnell Mooney. Mix that with among the coolest gamers within the league in RBs Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier and also you get an offense that’s cooking up a storm. Plus, they’ve already overwhelmed the Bucs twice and the Saints as soon as, principally locking up the NFC South at this level.

My solely level of concern is a protection that may’t rush the passer constantly, however as a result of they’ve an offense that may put up factors with anybody, I’m in on this workforce.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Pretender (hesitantly)

I had a lot religion within the Buccaneers, however I’m simply unsure this workforce can get to the playoffs of their present type. Thoughts you, this isn’t actually in regards to the offense. Whereas they will nonetheless endure from the Baker Mayfield bozo drive right here and there, the Bucs offense nonetheless has discovered very nice pockets of play with out WRs Chris Godwin and Mike Evans (Evans is anticipated again after Week 11). Their display screen recreation with all three working backs is de facto good, and the offensive line is coming collectively nicely.

The Bucs drawback is a protection that’s displaying increasingly more cracks by the day. Regardless of being fourth within the NFL in blitz price, they’re solely sixteenth in stress price per Professional Soccer Reference. They’ll’t actually get house with their pressures, and due to the construction of their protection, which means a defensive lineman is out in protection, leaving them open to getting carved up. Their again seven has been hit laborious by harm, which doesn’t add to the state of affairs any higher both. If they will’t beat the Chiefs on Monday evening, the season has an opportunity of getting worse earlier than it will get any higher.

Photograph by Michael Owens/Getty Photos

Arizona Cardinals: Pretender (hesitantly)

The Cardinals are the one workforce within the NFC West above .500. For those who had that in your NFL bingo card this season I need to shake your hand and offer you an award. The Cardinals are an interesting workforce as a result of they’re constructed like they could be extra ready to contend in 2025, however as a result of they’re main the division proper now, why not attempt to make a run? The offense is a little more high-variance than I would really like them to be, however at their greatest they trigger so many issues due to their skill to play in heavier formations. TE Trey McBride is a budding celebrity in addition to WR Marvin Harrison Jr, and RB James Conner is a deal with breaking machine. Whereas QB Kyler Murray has stretches of inconsistency, he’s an electrical playmaker who’s able to main this offense.

They’re pretenders for now as a result of I nonetheless have points with this protection, and it’s just because they’re too small up entrance. The Cardinals prefer to play with all three safeties on the sphere, however due to how little they’re up entrance, these safeties find yourself getting crushed by groups with a succesful run recreation, like quite a lot of groups the Cardinals would face within the playoffs. For now, I’m going to say they’re pretenders. However they’re enjoying with home cash at this level, and with a lighter schedule they very nicely may win the division.

Denver Broncos: Pretender

I’m simply unsure if the Broncos can significantly make a run to finish the season. Whereas I like their protection and the way they play when everyone seems to be wholesome, the offense leaves rather a lot to be desired. Clearly, the quarterback spot goes to get quite a lot of scrutiny, and I feel Nix has had quite a lot of stretches of poor play, however outdoors of Nix I simply don’t actually have quite a lot of religion on this supporting forged as a playoff workforce. Outdoors of WR Courtland Sutton, I feel the receiver group wants a bit extra maturation, they usually’re attempting to determine their RB rotation as nicely. Possibly they will backdoor their manner into the playoffs, however they’ve two video games in opposition to the Chiefs left, in addition to video games in opposition to the Chargers and Bengals on the schedule. I’m hesitant to name them a contender, however subsequent yr might be a superb one.

Cincinnati Bengals: Pretender

I’m not doing this with the Bengals once more. I simply can’t. Cincy is 4-5 after throttling the aimless Raiders on Sunday, however I simply don’t suppose that is the yr for the Bengals. Whereas Joe Burrow has performed implausible soccer, the protection remains to be reliant on otherworldly Trey Hendrickson performances with a view to win constantly on that aspect of the ball. They’re one of many worst run defenses in the complete league, which in addition they mix with some actual complicated stretches of play within the secondary. The younger DBs for Cincinnati nonetheless want extra time to develop, however their schedule doesn’t actually afford them a lot time to develop. Can the Bengals’ offense will them simply outdoors of the playoff image? Positive, however I don’t suppose they’ll have sufficient to do it this yr.

Photograph by Rio Giancarlo/Getty Photos

Seattle Seahawks: Pretender

No Seahawks recreation is ever regular, which makes this season probably the most irregular for Seattle shortly. It was at all times going to take time for the protection to essentially gel, however they permit far too many massive performs to be severe on protection proper now. Nonetheless, my concern is with an offense that’s at all times in its’ personal manner up entrance. Their incapacity to do something up entrance is de facto hampering what they will run on offense. They’re twenty eighth in Adjusted Line Yards, have given up 28 sacks and proper now can’t even snap a ball appropriately. This incapacity to run something up entrance places quite a lot of stress on QB Geno Smith to be excellent on each go, and never even he’s resistant to a a number of interception recreation like he had on Sunday. Even regardless of that, the Seahawks will nonetheless discover themselves within the hunt due to Smith and the opposite expertise on the offensive aspect of the ball, however I don’t know if the offensive line can do sufficient for them to make it.

Los Angeles Rams: Contender

The Rams did this final yr, and that’s largely the explanation why I feel they will do it once more. LA has a formulation for the way they win, which is a ferocious younger go rush and QB Matthew Stafford catching hearth for a number of video games. That’s how they beat Seattle on Sunday, and it’s a really efficient technique. So long as Stafford, WRs Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua and RB Kyren Williams play, the Rams’ offense is such an especially troublesome workforce to defend. Stafford could be placing collectively a few of his greatest play in latest weeks, and so long as they will get that from him the Rams are going to problem for the playoffs. If the go rush, led by sensational rookie EDGE Jared Verse, can proceed to be superb, this Rams workforce could make the playoffs.