Pierre Ferragu, an analyst at New Avenue Analysis, not too long ago expressed his views on the disconnect between prediction markets and the press concerning the 2024 U.S. presidential elections
What Occurred: On Thursday, Ferragu took to X to spotlight the contrasting narratives between the media and Polymarket— a so-called decentralized prediction market that used cryptocurrency to supply bets.
He identified that whereas Polymarket gave former President Donald Trump a better than 60% probability of profitable, the press painted a special image, suggesting a decent race with Vice President Kamala Harris profitable the favored vote, regardless that the Electoral School may favor the GOP nominee.
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Why It Issues: Ferragu’s observations come within the wake of Trump’s widening lead over Harris on Polymarket, with the previous President having a 62% chance of profitable on the time of writing.
Equally, Kalshi, a federally-regulated betting platform, confirmed 57% odds in Trump’s favor, againt Harris’ 43%.
This was in sharp distinction to nationwide ballot surveys that gave Harris an edge.
A Marist School survey finds Harris main Trump by 5 factors, with 52% assist to Trump’s 47%. Moreover, a Reuters/Ipsos ballot gave Harris a 3-point lead over her Republican rival.
The divergence comes amid hypothesis of a coordinated betting exercise on Polymarket, the place a single entity is suspected to have positioned a large $26 million guess on Trump’s victory.
Polymarket, constructed on Ethereum’s ETH/USD Layer-2 protocol Polygon MATIC/USD, has gained prominence as one of many world’s prime prediction markets for U.S. elections.
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