Republicans have gained a majority within the Senate, flipping the physique after 4 years of Democratic management.
This was the predicted end result given how susceptible Democrats had been this cycle: Whereas they had been defending 9 battleground seats, Republicans had been solely defending three. The GOP efficiently flipped key states together with West Virginia and Ohio, whereas holding off unexpectedly aggressive challenges in locations like Nebraska and Texas.
Republicans’ victories come as former President Donald Trump leads in electoral votes, with a number of swing states nonetheless excellent. As of two am ET, the presidential race has not been known as for both candidate, although early outcomes appear to recommend a bonus for Trump, with Vice President Kamala Harris’s believable paths to victory narrowing.
Of their campaigns, Republican Senate candidates leaned closely on critiques of Democrats’ financial insurance policies as many citizens continued to grapple with inflation and excessive prices of dwelling. Additionally they stored up fear-mongering on immigration as nicely, arguing that solely they may provide options to border crossing surges, just like the one in 2023. General, as a result of they weren’t in management within the Senate, Republican candidates had been capable of capitalize on anti-incumbent sentiment — and present discontent — as they campaigned to take again sure seats.
Republicans’ good points may have main implications for a possible Trump or Harris administration. If Trump wins, the Republican Senate would successfully provide him a clean examine on appointments, and permit him to renew stacking the courts together with his judges. Relying on the end result of Home races, a GOP Senate may additionally allow a doable Trump administration to pursue coverage priorities like rolling again the Inexpensive Care Act (ACA) and renewing company tax cuts. If Harris wins, the Senate may nicely stymie key judicial appointees, and block her legislative objectives.
What Republican Senate management may imply
The function the Senate will play within the subsequent few years will rely closely on who wins the presidential race.
The final Trump presidency was finally illustrative of what occurs when each the White Home and Senate are held by Republicans.
In that situation, Trump was capable of advance his judges at a fast tempo, reshaping the Circuit Court docket and Supreme Court docket with conservative picks. In complete, Trump was capable of get 234 judges confirmed, together with the three who now sit on the Supreme Court docket who proved integral to overturning Roe v. Wade.
Equally, Trump confronted little backlash or accountability for his rhetoric or coverage selections all through his time period, together with makes an attempt to implement a Muslim journey ban or to close down the federal government as leverage for funding for a wall alongside the US-Mexico border. Though some Republican senators spoke out, few actually vocalized their opposition to Trump or scrutinized his actions. When Trump was impeached for his function in fomenting the January 6 revolt, for instance, solely seven Republicans voted to convict him — the remaining voted to acquit him.
If Republicans keep management of the Home, a GOP Congress may additionally assist Trump advance his legislative agenda.
Trump has targeted extra on govt actions he’d wish to take (comparable to on tariffs, immigration, and worldwide relations) than on a congressional agenda. Nevertheless, Republicans have lengthy expressed an curiosity in curbing entry to the ACA. One challenge lawmakers will weigh within the subsequent 12 months is the expiration of ACA premium subsidies, Stat experiences. Home Speaker Mike Johnson has emphasised already that he’s concerned about main “reform” to the well being care invoice as nicely.
The tax cuts that Republicans handed in 2017 are additionally up for renewal, and shall be one other challenge that lawmakers within the subsequent Congress might want to deal with. Trump has instructed reducing the company tax charge and has floated some revenue tax cuts too. No matter whether or not they take the Home, Senate Republicans will probably advocate for these cuts. And Republicans may push, too, for expanded oil and fuel drilling leases that Democrats had beforehand curbed.
Senate Republicans have already signaled that they plan to be as obstructionist as doable in the event that they’re coping with a Harris administration.
Notably, each Sens. John Thune (R-SD) and John Cornyn (R-TX), two probably successors to Senate Minority Chief Mitch McConnell, have informed CNN that they aren’t positive if they might maintain a vote for any potential Harris Supreme Court docket nominees. With the bulk, the GOP can attempt to block any Harris judicial appointment from advancing, very like they as soon as did with former President Barack Obama’s Supreme Court docket nominee Merrick Garland and a few of his decrease courtroom picks. Within the case of Garland, the GOP efficiently refused to ever maintain a affirmation listening to or vote for him — and had been capable of stop him from getting seated on the bench.
They may do the identical for different Cupboard roles as nicely, they usually may additionally block laws from advancing. Harris campaigned closely on working to enact insurance policies that require congressional approval, together with sweeping immigration and abortion reform. These coverage objectives are unlikely to turn into a actuality in a GOP-controlled Senate.
No matter whether or not Trump or Harris is within the White Home, anticipate the higher chamber to play a big function in advancing or hampering their efforts.
