Media shares are set to profit from promoting spend by politicians, presidential debates and media appearances by presidential candidates through the 2024 election cycle.
Music streaming platform Spotify Know-how SPOT might grow to be one of many underrated winners of the election season if it may well seize interviews with each presidential candidates on one of many firm’s standard podcasts.
What Occurred: Each Vice President Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are rumored to be making appearances on “The Joe Rogan Expertise” podcast forward of the 2024 presidential election.
Trump, who has by no means appeared on the podcast, confirmed his look throughout an look on the “Full Ship” podcast.
Harris is rumored to be contemplating occurring the podcast as she continues her media blitz that has included appearances on tv and podcasts in latest weeks, concentrating on a number of completely different voter demographics.
“The Joe Rogan Expertise” podcast, hosted by Joe Rogan, is among the many prime listened-to podcasts within the U.S. and a serious subscriber driver for Spotify. The music firm stated earlier this 12 months Rogan had 14.5 million followers on the platform. Rogan has been primary on Spotify for 4 straight years.
Rogan has been unique to Spotify since 2020 and earlier this 12 months signed a multiyear renewal value a reported $250 million.
Whereas Rogan will probably get big viewership figures forward of the 2024 election as he talks about political matters and has noteworthy friends, drawing one or each of Trump and Harris, who’ve by no means appeared on the podcast, might be among the many most extremely anticipated exhibits in his historical past.
Spotify might stand to profit as the corporate may see a lift in subscribers, goal promoting {dollars} and supply bundles forward of the podcast appearances to reap the benefits of the interviews.
Whereas Trump has typically commanded robust viewership figures for his media appearances, Harris just lately helped “The View” publish its greatest rankings in three and a half years. Harris’ look on the Oct. 8 episode averaged 3.14 million, marking probably the most watched episode of the daytime present since Feb. 2021, as reported by Selection.
The robust viewership helped “The View” win the week for whole viewers amongst its friends.
Whereas Trump confirmed his look, customers aren’t satisfied Harris will make an look with the generally controversial Rogan. A prediction market on Polymarket lists a 33% likelihood of Harris occurring the podcast.
On Polymarket, customers can deposit funds utilizing USDC USDC/USD by way of the Polygon MATIC/USD community, or instantly from a crypto account with Ethereum ETH/USD. In every betting market, the successful choice pays out at $1.
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Spotify Development Potential: An look by Harris and/or Trump on “The Joe Rogan Expertise” might assist enhance the expansion prospects for Spotify, however an analyst sees future development coming with out both interview.
KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst Justin Patterson reiterated an Chubby ranking and raised the worth goal on Spotify from $440 to $490.
The analyst stated Spotify is “discovering the candy spot of development and margin.”
Spotify reviews third-quarter monetary outcomes on Nov. 12, which is coincidentally every week after the 2024 election.
With improved development and profitability, the analyst raises estimates for a number of monetary metrics forward of the earnings print.
Patterson sees Spotify reporting internet provides of 13 million month-to-month lively customers and 5 million premium subscribers.
“Given much less disruption from bundles, we imagine Spotify might outperform each metrics.”
The analyst stated there might be some upside in steerage based mostly on bundle rollouts. Patterson can be bullish on a possible coming catalyst that might be introduced by the corporate quickly.
“There are rising indicators {that a} high-end plan can be launched within the coming months.”
Patterson stated income development, regular margin enlargement and capital returns are all gadgets that might assist ship Spotify shares larger.
“We proceed to imagine there may be significant upside to Avenue profitability forecasts. We proceed to view valuation as compelling.
SPOT Value Motion: Spotify shares closed down 0.24% to $371.69 on Wednesday versus a 52-week buying and selling vary of $145.76 to $389.23. Spotify inventory is up 96% year-to-date in 2024.
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Picture: Courtesy Joe Rogan Expertise
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